Four public labels
Confirmed
An official source or directly observed outcome supports the specific claim.
Signal
A first-party statement matters, but the reset outcome or full scope remains unverified.
Editor’s forecast
An exact probability inside a bounded window, with evidence class, rationale, falsification condition and revision time.
Community forecast
An anonymous aggregate that can reveal expectations but cannot establish a fact.
Source priority
- OpenAI status, documentation and release notes.
- First-party statements from relevant OpenAI leaders or builders.
- Directly verifiable product behavior with a dated scope.
- Community reports as discovery inputs, never sole confirmation.
Probability ceilings
The prominent percentage means the estimated chance that a global reset happens inside the displayed window. It is not source confidence and it is not the community vote.
- Up to 49%
- General limits discussion without a reset-specific statement.
- Up to 79%
- A credible first-party hint that specifically mentions a reset.
- Up to 95%
- A direct first-party signal that a reset is likely or imminent.
- Up to 99%
- A near-explicit timing notice while the event is still unobserved.
Once the reset occurs, the state becomes Confirmed—never a 100% forecast. These editorial probabilities are not statistically calibrated at launch; resolved history will make later accuracy reporting possible.
Corrections and lifecycle
Published records are versioned. Corrections append a dated revision; retractions remain visible in history rather than disappearing. Signals may become confirmed, resolved, corrected or retracted.